Indian strategic thinkers concerned about China

The economic ties between China and India has been growing. China has become the leading trading partner of India. On international issues such as climate change, both countries seem to share a lot of common ground. Yet, defence and foreign policy experts on both sides periodically express grave concerns. Last month, there was that report from a Chinese think tank which said that fragmentation of India was an option for India. This week there are three Indian experts who have expressed their concerns about Chinese design on India.

In an article published in The Telegraph newspaper, "Diffident diplomacy: China continues to outmanoeuvre India", on September 1, 2009, former Indian Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal had warned about "strengthening suspicions that China will do everything possible to thwart India’s rise as a rival power," "its propensity to disregard agreements arbitrarily," and with India’s politically

Harsh Pant, a scholar at King’s College, London, wrote an article titled, "China Tightens the Screws on India", in the Far Eastern Economic Review, Sept 2009, (subscription required).

Even as the two countries sign seemingly important documents year after year, the distrust between them is actually growing at an alarming rate.....The two sides are locked in a classic security dilemma where any action taken by one is immediately interpreted by the other as a threat to its own interests... ... ...

Sino-India frictions are growing and the potential for conflict remains high. Concern in India is increasing over China’s frequent and strident territorial claims along the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim... ... ...

To strengthen its bargaining position with China, India will have to gain some sort of leverage over its neighbor, something it could possibly achieve by cultivating states along China’s periphery. Indian policy toward China continues to be viewed largely through the prism of economic growth, with the assumption that the only way to match up to the challenge posed by Beijing is to grow at 7% to 8% over the next decade or so. Yet India will have to work proactively to achieve greater strategic balance in the region over the next few years if it wants to preserve and enhance its own interests. As of now, Indian policy makers have not found a way of doing this... ... ...

Brahma Chellaney, a strategic scholar, at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, wrote another article titled, "India’s Growing China Angst " in the Far Eastern Economic Review, Sept 2009, (subscription required).

The strains in Sino-Indian relations have also resulted from sharpening geopolitical rivalry. This was evident from China’s botched 2008 effort to stymie the U.S.-India nuclear deal by blocking the Nuclear Suppliers Group from opening civilian nuclear trade with New Delhi. In the NSG, China landed itself in a position it avoids in any international body—as the last holdout. Recently, there has been an outcry in India over attempts to undermine the Indian brand through exports from China of fake pharmaceutical products labeled “Made in India.”... ... ...

India can expect no respite from Chinese pressure. Whether Beijing actually sets out to teach India “the final lesson” by launching a 1962-style surprise war will depend on several calculations, including India’s defense preparedness to repel such an attack, domestic factors within China and the availability of a propitious international timing of the type the Cuban missile crisis provided 47 years ago. But if India is not to be caught napping again, it has to inject greater realism into its China policy by shedding self-deluding shibboleths, shoring up its deterrent capabilities and putting premium on leveraged diplomacy.