Chinese economist praise Indian economic growth model

World Economic Forum is hosting a meeting in Beijing this week. In this news item by PTI, filed from Beijing, report a side event, where Peking University economist Fu Jun said that  India has comparative strategic advantage in the value chain whereas China relied mostly on the labour and cost advantages. This is from the Times of India on 14 Sept. 2010, under the title "Indian model of growth wins praise over its Chinese rival".

BEIJING: Indian economic growth, often described as chaotic and weighed down by poor infrastructure, came in for praise from experts here, compared to more disciplined but highly autocratic Chinese model.

While Indian economic growth was more fuelled by high domestic consumption and services, the Chinese model relied heavily on manufacturing and exports, said Western and Chinese experts at the state TV debate, on the sidelines of of the World Economic Forum being held here.

Besides, India has comparative strategic advantage in the value chain whereas China relied mostly on the labour and cost advantages, said Fu Jun, professor of the Political Economy of the Peking University.

"India in comparison has done a better job", Jun said.

"What is interesting from now on is which one is more viable. I have to give credit to India. What India will do next is to continue the strategy and move into other areas. By comparison we (China) have to readjust our strategy into manufacturing. I do not see reasonable balance between supply and demand," he added.

Human resources development minister Kapil Sibal, who was participating in the debate, said, "Because our economy is based on domestic demand, there is much greater innovation and ability of the entrepreneurs to actually produce wealth. In the long run a lot of innovation and lot of wealth production is going to come from our part of the world."

Martin Wolf, associate editor of the Financial Times, who was critical of the Indian growth model said, however, "Indian development is working despite failure of organisation and poor infrastructure. It is clear that lot of successful multinational companies have good assets in India."

The debate, the first of the three was held on the side lines of the Geneva based World Economic Forum which was being held at Chinese port city of Tianjin, where over 1,400 political, business leaders and economists gathered to deliberate on "Driving Growth through Sustainability".

Besides Sibal, Karnataka chief minister, BS Yeddyurappa and a host of Indian business leaders are taking part in the meeting, which is inaugurated today by Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao.

China and India in the decade ahead

As 2009 came to a close, and the new year dawned, two prominent Indian economists and columnists picked up their crystal balls, and looked at the decade ahead. Among other things, both of them compared the future economic trajectories of both China and India.

Sawminathan Aiyar makes eight predictions in his article "India to overtake China in 2020" in Times of India, on Jan 1, 2010. The first prediction compared China and India.

India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply - the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India's GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China's growth will dip to 7-8%.

In a more ominous vein, Mr Aiyar foresees the possibility of a water war between China and India.

China, alarmed at India's rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.

Please Read Swaminathan Aiyar's complete article here.

Surjit S Bhalla, in his column, "The new decade will belong to India; when will this reality be recognised by Indians?" in the Business Standard, on Dec 26, 2009,

Two key conclusions emerge about Indian GDP growth. First, that this growth is now at a plateau level of 8-9 per cent. Second, that very soon, analysts and punters will have to change their Word documents to “India is the fastest growing economy in the world” rather than, “excepting China, India is the fastest growing economy”.

There are three separate reasons for this, all of which have been outlined numerous times before in these columns (and a detailed assessment was provided in Bhalla-2007*). The reasons refer to the broad determinants of economic growth — capital, labour and productivity. On the first, India is investing at the same rate as China (approximately 40 per cent of GDP), on the second, India’s labour force growth is about 1.8 per cent per year faster than China, and on the third, China has outpaced India by about 2 per cent per annum (for the last five years). Most of this outpacing has had to do with the deep and deeper currency undervaluation practised by the Chinese authorities which led to two unsatisfactory outcomes: the great financial crisis of 2008, and now the largest and fastest growing polluter of the world. For how long will the international community stand idly by? Not very, and this is the first big forecast for the ensuing decade: China’s exchange rate will appreciate significantly starting 2010. How significantly? A first year appreciation to about 6 yuan per dollar from the present 6.8 level.

This scenario will have predicted effects — China’s GDP growth should moderate to a less polluting 8.5 per cent in 2010 and then proceed on a declining trend for the rest of the decade. This will mean jobs for the rest of the world.

Please read Surjit Bhalla's complete article here.

It would be interesting to know how some of the Chinese and international economists are looking at the decade ahead. If you come across other interesting analysis, please do share it with us.